Assessing the Internal and External Environment
Leaders must have an intimate knowledge of their organization, community, and the broader context in which they operate. They must also routinely monitor the external environment for opportunities and threats so they are not merely reacting to events and missing opportunities but rather anticipating possible changes, particularly dramatic and unpredictable changes.
To complete:
In the Group Wiki, write by Day 5 responses to the following:
• Describe a leadership process or strategy that you might use to identify key issues and trends that pose opportunities and threats to your organization. Explain the process and provide a resource for your colleagues.
• Locate and identify sources (professional journals, newsletters, blogs, thought leaders, government reports, etc.) you could use to identify policy issues and/or trends that will impact your organization over the next 5 years.

I WORK FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF FAMILY CHILDREN SERVICES IS JONESBORO GA CLAYTON COUNTY.
IT IS AN AGENCY THAT PROVIDES GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE FOR NEEDY FAMILIES.

WIKI 4
Future Scenarios
The idea of the future being different from the present is so repugnant to our conventional modes of thought and behavior that we, most of us, offer a great resistance to acting on it in practice.
—John Maynard Keynes, 1937
What does the future hold and what does it mean to different organizations and communities? Strategic planning uses historical information from past events to prepare for the future. Scenarios help plan for significant changes for which the available data is limited and/or uncertain. Scenarios are said to be ideal for preparing for substantial changes by navigating through various potential events and determining different ways to respond to the scenarios.
To complete:
Read the scenarios and reflect on the future scenarios presented in Futurevision and in Global Trends 2040.
In the Group Wiki, write by Day 5 responses to the following:
• Which scenario did you find most plausible and believable? Why?
• Looking at your long-term strategic goals for your organization, how might any one of these scenarios impact your organization and community?
READINGS RESOURCES
• Course Text: Watson, R., & Freeman, O. (2012). Futurevision: Scenarios for the world in 2040.Victoria, Australia: Scribe.
o Chapter 1, “Forward, Into the Unknown: Why Scenario Planning?” (pp. 11–32)
o Chapter 2, “The Theatre of the Future: Introducing the Four Futures” (pp. 33–40)
o Read any two of the following chapters:
o Chapter 3, “Imagine: A World of Intelligence” (pp. 41–71)
o Chapter 4, “Please Please Me: A World of Greed” (pp. 72–102)
o Chapter 5, “Dear Prudence: A World of Temperance” (pp. 103–130)
o Chapter 6, “Helter Skelter: A World of Fear” (130–159)
• Wade, P. A., & Wade, W. (2012). Scenario planning: A field guide to the future [ebrary version]. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Retrieved from the Walden University Library databases.
o Chapter 1, “Escaping the Tyranny of the Present” (pp. 6–23)
• National Intelligence Council. (2012). Global trends 2030: Alternative worlds. Retrieved fromhttp://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/global-trends-2030
This is an excellent example of scenario planning by the National Intelligence Council.
Media
• Kogan, R. (2014). Scenario planning: A creative tool for future strategies [Video file]. Retrieved fromhttps://vimeo.com/100429443
Knowledge Architecture. (2014). Scenario Planning: A Creative Tool for Future Strategies (Video). Retrieved from https://vimeo.com/100429443. Used by permissions of Knowledge Architecture.
Note: The approximate length of this media piece is 21 minutes.

Optional Resources
• United Nations Environment Programme. (n.d.). IEA training manual – Module 6. Retrieved September 24, 2015, from http://www.unep.org/ieacp/iea/training/manual/module6/1246.aspx
• U.S. Department of Transportation. (2014). FHWA scenario planning guidebook. Retrieved September 24, 2015, fromhttp://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/scenario_and_visualization/scenario_planning/scenario_planning_guidebook/ch00.cfm
WIKI 5
THIS IS A 2 PART PAPER YOU WILL DO THE ASSIGNMENT FIRST THEN YOU WILL COMPLETE THE WIKI 5 GROUP PART.
Create interview questions for a leader or subject matter expert in the nonprofit or government organization you have selected for your Final Project, and provide the following:
• Provide the position of the leader or subject matter expert you interviewed and explain why you chose this person.
• Describe other key players you would interview in your organization and/or community as part of a scenario planning process, and explain why.
• Provide a list of 5–8 questions that you asked this individual and the answers you obtained during the interview.
• Describe the driving forces you observed in the leader or subject matter expert you interviewed.
Sample questions can be taken from this week’s Learning Resources and may look something like those below:
• When you look 10 years ahead, what do you consider most uncertain about where we are heading with local government?
• What would you consider a good outcome or a favorable scenario from these uncertainties?
• What would you consider a bad outcome or nightmare scenario?
• What are the major lessons learned in local government in the past 5 years that should carry us into the future?
• What are the big decisions that need to be taken in the immediate future that will steer us away from the nightmare scenario?
• What are the main constraints standing in the way of the favorable scenario?
The Assignment should follow APA 6th edition guidelines:
Title page
Running head
Introduction and Conclusion
Level 1 headings to define sections
3–5 pages in length, double spaced, 12 pt Times Roman font
3–5 references cited in the text and a reference list
THEN PART 2 OF WEEK 5
To complete:
In the Group Wiki, write by Day 5 responses to the following:
• From the interview you completed for your Assignment this week, provide a summary of the environmental influences or driving forces that were identified by the person you interviewed that will be impacting your organization over the next 5–10 years.
• Share at least two websites or scholarly articles that you would use in a literature review to further explain these driving forces in the long term (these should be different than those resources identified to look at current trends).
READINGS
Readings
• Watson, R., & Freeman, O. (2012). Futurevision: Scenarios for the world in 2040. Victoria, Australia: Scribe.
o Chapter 7, “Futurevision: The Role of Foresight” (pp. 167–184)
o Chapter 8, “The Scenario-Planning QUEST: Introducing the Four Stages” (pp. 185–223)
o Chapter 9, “Developing Framing Questions: The First Stage” (pp. 224–242)
o Chapter 10, “Examining Environmental Influences: The Second Stage” (pp. 243–282)
• National Intelligence Council. (n.d.). Global trends. Retrieved September 24, 2015, fromhttp://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-global-trends
• Chakraborty, A., & McMillan, A. (2015). Scenario planning for urban planners: Toward a practitioner’s guide. Journal of the American Planning Association, 81(1), 18–29.
Retrieved from the Walden University Library databases.
• Wade, P. A., & Wade, W. (2015). Scenario planning: A field guide to the future [ebrary version]. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Retrieved from the Walden University Library databases.
o Chapter 2, “How-To” (pp. 26–63)
Optional Resources
• Oregon Department of Transportation. (2013). Oregon scenario planning guidelines: Resources for developing and evaluating alternative land use and transportation scenarios. Retrieved fromhttp://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/OSTI/docs/ODOT-Guidelines-April2013.pdf
Places for Data
• Bureau of Justice Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved September 18, 2015, from http://www.bjs.gov/
• Glenn, J. C., Gordon, T. J., &Florescu, E. (2014). 2013–14 state of the future [Executive summary]. Retrieved from http://millennium-project.org/millennium/2014SOF-Executive_Summary.pdf
• National Center for Education Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved September 18, 2015, from http://nces.ed.gov/
• UN Data. (n.d.). Retrieved September 18, 2015, from http://data.un.org/
• United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. (n.d.). Data. Retrieved September 18, 2015, fromhttp://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/statistics/data.html
• U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). Retrieved September 18, 2015, from http://www.census.gov/
• World Future Society (n.d.). Forecasts from The Futurist magazine. Retrieved September 18, 2015, from http://www.wfs.org/Forecasts_From_The_Futurist_Magazine