Forecasting

Forecasting

• discuss the future of the Delta Air Lines with new strategy/decision. present both qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques that you have used in this
section. use real and related data and apply all the forecasting methods— Naïve, MA, WMA, Exponential Smoothing and Techniques for Trend—that we have discussed in the
course. Then using error analysis (or forecast accuracy) techniques (see lecture slides 46-49 from M1.3-Forecasting), choose the best forecasting method. Briefly
explain the rationale behind your choice. summarize your forecasting accuracy results in tables first and then present details in appendices at the end of the report.
Finally, you should also construct a control chart to monitor the forecast-errors of the best forecasting method according to your analysis; please see lecture slide
101 from M2.1-Quality and Performance and use z=3 for your report. You should also submit your Excel work with the report.
Some information to help
“Delta is leveraging its strong domestic base to enjoy its position as a first mover in developing and selling branded fares, which represented nearly 40% of Delta’s
growth in top line passenger revenue for 2Q2017.
Delta cites a significant upside in pricing of US business fares
Delta’s 2.5% increase in passenger unit revenue (PRASM) during 2Q2017 was the first positive performance the airline achieved in that metric since 2014.
The airline has promised a return to positive PRASM on several occasions, but missed those targets as pricing pressure, particularly in the US market, remained intact
until late 2016. Delta’s 2Q2017 PRASM performance reached the upper end of its forecast of 1% to 3% growth year-on-year.

The US domestic market was Delta’s strongest performing operation in 2Q2017, and it was driven in large part by improving corporate yields.

Delta also believes its tiered pricing structure should continue to lift revenues. During 2Q2017 Delta’s top-line passenger revenues grew by 3%, or approximately
USD260 million to USD9.2 billion. Broadly USD100 million of the increase was attributable to branded fares.”