Make decision analysis and do Strategy Tables by use the Kepner-Tregoe
make a decision analysis AND make Strategy Tables by use the (Kepner-Tregoe).
I will send to you 3 files: The first is a description of the Kepner-Tregoe approach to decision analysis. The second is an example of the application of Strategy Tables. Third one is exaple for Strategy Tables.
Figure 1 Decision Tree For Callaway P-Grid
D1 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 Sequence Consequence Probability Costs Expected Cost
data available meets schedule accept. to customer licensing path success likelihood customer pays cost industry impact
0.6 d1-1 Westinghouse does not incur costs 0 $0 $0
0
0.4 d1-2 Westinghouse does not incur costs 0 $0 $0
0.9 0.6 d1-3 Westinghouse incurs grid HW change cost for one plant 0.5346 $450,000 $240,570
50.59 100% 1
0.4 d1-4 Westinghouse incurs grid HW cost for one plant + backfit costs of previously installed plants (no additional costs for sale to plants currently w/o P-grids 0.3564 $2,450,000 $873,180
0.99
0.1 d1-5 Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer 0.099 $900,000 $89,100
Make Grid HW Change OK 0.01 d1-6 Cost of appeasing customer + bad press 0.01 $900,000 $9,000
Sums for Grid HW Change Alternative 1 $1,211,850
D1 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 Sequence Consequence Probability Costs Expected Cost
data available meets schedule accept. to customer licensing path success likelihood customer pays cost industry impact
0.6 d2-1 Westinghouse does not incur costs 0.126225 $0 $0
0.5
0.4 d2-2 Westinghouse does not incur costs 0.08415 $0 $0
85%
0.5 0.6 d2-3 Westinghouse incurs sump-screen HW change cost for one plant 0.126225 $400,000 $50,490
50.59 0.5
0.4 d2-4 Westinghouse incurs sump-screen HW change cost for one plant + backfit costs of current P-grid customers + include as part of sale to plants currently without P-grids 0.08415 $8,400,000 $706,860
0.15 d2-5 Switch to another alternative 0.07425 $2,000,000 $148,500
0.99 NPSH problem
0.5 d2-6 Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer 0.495 $900,000 $445,500
Make sump-screen HW Change OK 0.01 d2-7 Cost of appeasing customer + bad press 0.01 $900,000 $9,000
Sums for Sump-Screen HW Change Alternative 1 $1,360,350
D1 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 Sequence Consequence Probability Costs Expected Cost
data available meets schedule accept. to customer licensing path success likelihood customer pays cost industry impact
0.5 d3-1 Westinghouse incurs code-based analysis cost for one plant 0.046875 $200,000 $9,375
0.5
0.5 No 0.5 d3-2 Westinghouse incurs code-based analysis cost for one plant + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants 0.046875 $1,200,000 $56,250
50.59
1 0.5 d3-3 Switch to another alternative 0.09375 $2,000,000 $187,500
0.5 d3-4 Westinghouse incurs code-based analysis cost for one plant + testing to support NRC review 0.046875 $5,200,000 $243,750
0.5
0.5 d3-5 Westinghouse incurs code-based analysis cost for one plant + testing to support NRC review + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants 0.046875 $6,400,000 $300,000
0.5
NRC 0.5 d3-6 Switch to another alternative 0.09375 $2,000,000 $187,500
0.75
0 d3-7 Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer 0 $900,000 $0
0.5
0.25 d3-8 Cost of appeasing customer + bad press 0.125 $900,000 $112,500
Make Code-based Analysis
0.5 d3-9 Switch to another alternative 0.5 $2,000,000 $1,000,000
Sums for Code-based Analysis Alternative 1 $2,096,875
D1 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 Sequence Consequence Probability Costs Expected Cost
data available meets schedule accept. to customer licensing path success likelihood customer pays cost industry impact
0.5 d4-1 Westinghouse incurs analysis (plus test) cost for one plant 0.046875 $400,000 $18,750
0.5
0.5 No 0.5 d4-2 Westinghouse incurs analysis (plus test) cost for one plant + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants 0.046875 $1,600,000 $75,000
50.59
1 0.5 d4-3 Switch to another alternative 0.09375 $2,000,000 $187,500
0.5 d4-4 Westinghouse incurs analysis (plus test) cost for one plant 0.046875 $400,000 $18,750
0.5
0.5 d4-5 Westinghouse incurs analysis (plus test) cost for one plant + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants 0.046875 $1,600,000 $75,000
0.5
NRC 0.5 d4-6 Switch to another alternative 0.09375 $2,000,000 $187,500
0.75
0 d4-7 Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer 0 $900,000 $0
0.5
0.25 d4-8 Cost of appeasing customer + bad press 0.125 $900,000 $112,500
Make First-principle Engineering Analysis
0.5 d4-9 Switch to another alternative 0.5 $2,000,000 $1,000,000
test not successful
Sums for First-principle Engineering Analysis Alternative 1 $1,675,000
D1 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 Sequence Consequence Probability Costs Expected Cost
data available meets schedule accept. to customer licensing path success likelihood customer pays cost industry impact
1 d5-1 Westinghouse incurs analysis cost for one plant 0.05 $100,000 $5,000
1
0.05 No 0 d5-2 Westinghouse incurs analysis cost for one plant + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants 0 $0 $0
50.59
1 0 d5-3 Switch to another alternative 0 $2,000,000 $0
1 d5-4 Westinghouse incurs analysis cost for one plant 0.095 $100,000 $9,500
0.1
0 d5-5 Westinghouse incurs analysis cost for one plant + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants 0 $0 $0
0.95
NRC 0.9 d5-6 Switch to another alternative 0.855 $2,000,000 $1,710,000
1
0
Note 1 0
Make PRA Argument
Sums for PRA Alternative 1 $1,724,500
Note 1 = Data not available. Assume use of expert opinion, which would make the success probability lower.
Table 1 Input Data for P-Grid Decision Tree for Callaway – Probabilities
Probabilities Associated With Grid HW Change
Success Failure Description
P1
P2 0.99 0.01
P3 0.9 0.1
P4
P5
P6 0 1
P7 0.6 0.4
Probabilities Associated With Sump-Screen HW Change
Success Failure Description
P1
P2 0.99 0.01
P3 0.5 0.5
P4
P5 0.85 0.15
P6 0.5 0.5
P7 0.6 0.4
Probabilities Associated With Code-Based Analysis
Success Failure Description
P1 0.5 0.5
P2 0.75 0.25
P3 1 0
P4 0.5 0.5
P5 0.5 0.5
P52 0.5 0.5
P6 0 1
P7 0.5 0.5
Probabilities Associated With First-principle Engineering Analysis
Success Failure Description
P1 0.5 0.5
P2 0.75 0.25
P3 1 0
P4 0.5 0.5
P5 0.5 0.5
P52 0.5 0.5
P6 0 1
P7 0.5 0.5
Probabilities Associated With PRA Argument
Success Failure Description
P1
P2 1 0
P3 1 0
P4 0.05 0.95
P5 1 0
P52 0.1 0.9
P6 0 1
P7 1 0
Table 2 Input Data for P-Grid Decision Tree for Callaway – Costs
Costs Associated With Grid HW Change
C11 0 No cost to Westinghouse
C12 450000 Cost to Westinghouse of grid HW change for one plant (latest numbers from CNFBU-Columbia)
C13 2000000 Backfit costs for previously installed plants
C14 900000 (1) Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer
C15 900000 (1) Cost of appeasing customer + bad press
Costs Associated With Sump-Screen HW Change
C21 0 No cost to Westinghouse
C22 400000 Cost to Westinghouse of sump-screen HW change for one plant
C23 4800000 Backfit costs for previously installed plants
C23 3200000 Offered to plants currently w/o P-grids as part of package (assume 8 plants)
C24 2000000 (2) Switch to another alternative
C25 900000 (1) Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer
C26 900000 (3) Cost of appeasing customer + bad press
Costs Associated With Code-based Analysis
C31
C32 200000 Cost to Westinghouse of analysis for one plant
C32 5000000 Cost to Westinghouse for testing to support NRC Review (for heated tests, add $5 million)
C33 1200000 Backfit analysis costs for previously installed plants
C34 2000000 (2) Switch to another alternative
C35 900000 (1) Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer
C36 900000 (3) Cost of appeasing customer + bad press
Costs Associated With First-principle Engineering Analysis
C41
C42 400000 Cost to Westinghouse of analysis for one plant (including test)
C43 1200000 Backfit analysis costs for previously installed plants
C44 2000000 (2) Switch to another alternative
C45 900000 (1) Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer
C46 900000 (3) Cost of appeasing customer + bad press
Costs Associated With PRA Argument
C41
C42 100000 Cost to Westinghouse of analysis for one plant
C43 Backfit analysis costs for previously installed plants
C44 2000000 (2) Switch to another alternative
C45 (1) Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer
C46 (3) Cost of appeasing customer + bad press
Notes:
1 Assumed to be twice the cost of the grid change alternative
2 Guesstimate; to be justified.
3 Assumed to be no more than twice the cost of the grid change alternative PLACE THIS ORDER OR A SIMILAR ORDER WITH US TODAY AND GET AN AMAZING DISCOUNT 🙂
