Make decision analysis and do Strategy Tables by use the Kepner-Tregoe

Make decision analysis and do Strategy Tables by use the Kepner-Tregoe

make a decision analysis AND make Strategy Tables by use the (Kepner-Tregoe).
I will send to you 3 files: The first is a description of the Kepner-Tregoe approach to decision analysis. The second is an example of the application of Strategy Tables. Third one is exaple for Strategy Tables.

Figure 1  Decision Tree For Callaway P-Grid

D1    P1    P2    P3    P4    P5    P6    P7    Sequence    Consequence    Probability    Costs    Expected Cost
data available    meets schedule    accept. to customer    licensing path    success likelihood    customer pays cost    industry impact
0.6    d1-1    Westinghouse does not incur costs    0    \$0    \$0
0
0.4    d1-2    Westinghouse does not incur costs    0    \$0    \$0

0.9                0.6    d1-3    Westinghouse incurs grid HW change cost for one plant     0.5346    \$450,000    \$240,570
50.59    100%    1
0.4    d1-4    Westinghouse incurs grid HW cost for one plant + backfit costs of previously installed plants (no additional costs for sale to plants currently w/o P-grids    0.3564    \$2,450,000    \$873,180
0.99
0.1                    d1-5    Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer    0.099    \$900,000    \$89,100

Make Grid HW Change    OK    0.01                        d1-6    Cost of appeasing customer + bad press    0.01    \$900,000    \$9,000

Sums for Grid HW Change Alternative    1        \$1,211,850

D1    P1    P2    P3    P4    P5    P6    P7    Sequence    Consequence    Probability    Costs    Expected Cost
data available    meets schedule    accept. to customer    licensing path    success likelihood    customer pays cost    industry impact
0.6    d2-1    Westinghouse does not incur costs    0.126225    \$0    \$0
0.5
0.4    d2-2    Westinghouse does not incur costs    0.08415    \$0    \$0
85%
0.5                0.6    d2-3    Westinghouse incurs sump-screen HW change cost for one plant     0.126225    \$400,000    \$50,490
50.59        0.5
0.4    d2-4    Westinghouse incurs sump-screen HW change cost for one plant + backfit costs of current P-grid customers + include as part of sale to plants currently without P-grids    0.08415    \$8,400,000    \$706,860

0.15            d2-5    Switch to another alternative    0.07425    \$2,000,000    \$148,500
0.99            NPSH problem
0.5                    d2-6    Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer    0.495    \$900,000    \$445,500

Make sump-screen HW Change    OK    0.01                        d2-7    Cost of appeasing customer + bad press    0.01    \$900,000    \$9,000

Sums for Sump-Screen HW Change Alternative    1        \$1,360,350

D1    P1    P2    P3    P4    P5    P6    P7    Sequence    Consequence    Probability    Costs    Expected Cost
data available    meets schedule    accept. to customer    licensing path    success likelihood    customer pays cost    industry impact
0.5    d3-1    Westinghouse incurs code-based analysis cost for one plant     0.046875    \$200,000    \$9,375
0.5
0.5        No    0.5    d3-2    Westinghouse incurs code-based analysis cost for one plant + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants    0.046875    \$1,200,000    \$56,250
50.59
1        0.5            d3-3    Switch to another alternative    0.09375    \$2,000,000    \$187,500

0.5    d3-4    Westinghouse incurs code-based analysis cost for one plant + testing to support NRC review    0.046875    \$5,200,000    \$243,750
0.5
0.5    d3-5    Westinghouse incurs code-based analysis cost for one plant + testing to support NRC review + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants    0.046875    \$6,400,000    \$300,000
0.5
NRC    0.5            d3-6    Switch to another alternative    0.09375    \$2,000,000    \$187,500
0.75
0                    d3-7    Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer    0    \$900,000    \$0
0.5
0.25                        d3-8    Cost of appeasing customer + bad press    0.125    \$900,000    \$112,500
Make Code-based Analysis
0.5                            d3-9    Switch to another alternative    0.5    \$2,000,000    \$1,000,000

Sums for Code-based Analysis Alternative    1        \$2,096,875

D1    P1    P2    P3    P4    P5    P6    P7    Sequence    Consequence    Probability    Costs    Expected Cost
data available    meets schedule    accept. to customer    licensing path    success likelihood    customer pays cost    industry impact
0.5    d4-1    Westinghouse incurs analysis (plus test) cost for one plant     0.046875    \$400,000    \$18,750
0.5
0.5        No    0.5    d4-2    Westinghouse incurs analysis (plus test) cost for one plant + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants    0.046875    \$1,600,000    \$75,000
50.59
1        0.5            d4-3    Switch to another alternative    0.09375    \$2,000,000    \$187,500

0.5    d4-4    Westinghouse incurs analysis (plus test) cost for one plant     0.046875    \$400,000    \$18,750
0.5
0.5    d4-5    Westinghouse incurs analysis (plus test) cost for one plant + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants    0.046875    \$1,600,000    \$75,000
0.5
NRC    0.5            d4-6    Switch to another alternative    0.09375    \$2,000,000    \$187,500
0.75
0                    d4-7    Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer    0    \$900,000    \$0
0.5
0.25                        d4-8    Cost of appeasing customer + bad press    0.125    \$900,000    \$112,500
Make First-principle Engineering Analysis
0.5                            d4-9    Switch to another alternative    0.5    \$2,000,000    \$1,000,000
test not successful
Sums for First-principle Engineering Analysis Alternative    1        \$1,675,000

D1    P1    P2    P3    P4    P5    P6    P7    Sequence    Consequence    Probability    Costs    Expected Cost
data available    meets schedule    accept. to customer    licensing path    success likelihood    customer pays cost    industry impact
1    d5-1    Westinghouse incurs analysis cost for one plant     0.05    \$100,000    \$5,000
1
0.05        No    0    d5-2    Westinghouse incurs analysis cost for one plant + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants    0    \$0    \$0
50.59
1        0            d5-3    Switch to another alternative    0    \$2,000,000    \$0

1    d5-4    Westinghouse incurs analysis cost for one plant     0.095    \$100,000    \$9,500
0.1
0    d5-5    Westinghouse incurs analysis cost for one plant + backfit analysis costs of previously installed plants    0    \$0    \$0
0.95
NRC    0.9            d5-6    Switch to another alternative    0.855    \$2,000,000    \$1,710,000
1
0

Note 1    0
Make PRA Argument

Sums for PRA Alternative    1        \$1,724,500
Note 1 =    Data not available.  Assume use of expert opinion, which would make the success probability lower.

Table 1  Input Data for P-Grid Decision Tree for Callaway – Probabilities

Probabilities Associated With Grid HW Change
Success    Failure    Description
P1
P2    0.99    0.01
P3    0.9    0.1
P4
P5
P6    0    1
P7    0.6    0.4

Probabilities Associated With Sump-Screen HW Change
Success    Failure    Description
P1
P2    0.99    0.01
P3    0.5    0.5
P4
P5    0.85    0.15
P6    0.5    0.5
P7    0.6    0.4

Probabilities Associated With Code-Based Analysis
Success    Failure    Description
P1    0.5    0.5
P2    0.75    0.25
P3    1    0
P4    0.5    0.5
P5    0.5    0.5
P52    0.5    0.5
P6    0    1
P7    0.5    0.5

Probabilities Associated With First-principle Engineering Analysis
Success    Failure    Description
P1    0.5    0.5
P2    0.75    0.25
P3    1    0
P4    0.5    0.5
P5    0.5    0.5
P52    0.5    0.5
P6    0    1
P7    0.5    0.5

Probabilities Associated With PRA Argument
Success    Failure    Description
P1
P2    1    0
P3    1    0
P4    0.05    0.95
P5    1    0
P52    0.1    0.9
P6    0    1
P7    1    0

Table 2  Input Data for P-Grid Decision Tree for Callaway – Costs

Costs Associated With Grid HW Change
C11    0        No cost to Westinghouse
C12    450000        Cost to Westinghouse of grid HW change for one plant (latest numbers from CNFBU-Columbia)
C13    2000000        Backfit costs for previously installed plants
C14    900000    (1)    Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer
C15    900000    (1)    Cost of appeasing customer + bad press

Costs Associated With Sump-Screen HW Change
C21    0        No cost to Westinghouse
C22    400000        Cost to Westinghouse of sump-screen HW change for one plant
C23    4800000        Backfit costs for previously installed plants
C23    3200000        Offered to plants currently w/o P-grids as part of package (assume 8 plants)
C24    2000000    (2)    Switch to another alternative
C25    900000    (1)    Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer
C26    900000    (3)    Cost of appeasing customer + bad press

Costs Associated With Code-based Analysis
C31
C32    200000        Cost to Westinghouse of analysis for one plant
C32    5000000        Cost to Westinghouse for testing to support NRC Review (for heated tests, add \$5 million)
C33    1200000        Backfit analysis costs for previously installed plants
C34    2000000    (2)    Switch to another alternative
C35    900000    (1)    Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer
C36    900000    (3)    Cost of appeasing customer + bad press

Costs Associated With First-principle Engineering Analysis
C41
C42    400000        Cost to Westinghouse of analysis for one plant (including test)
C43    1200000        Backfit analysis costs for previously installed plants
C44    2000000    (2)    Switch to another alternative
C45    900000    (1)    Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer
C46    900000    (3)    Cost of appeasing customer + bad press

Costs Associated With PRA Argument
C41
C42    100000        Cost to Westinghouse of analysis for one plant
C43            Backfit analysis costs for previously installed plants
C44    2000000    (2)    Switch to another alternative
C45        (1)    Switch to another alternative or sweeten the deal for the customer
C46        (3)    Cost of appeasing customer + bad press
Notes:

1    Assumed to be twice the cost of the grid change alternative
2    Guesstimate; to be justified.
3    Assumed to be no more than twice the cost of the grid change alternative                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            PLACE THIS ORDER OR A SIMILAR ORDER WITH US TODAY AND GET AN AMAZING DISCOUNT 🙂