Research Topic Paper

As preparation for the final research paper, formulate an original theory about the correlation between four measurable independent variables (causes) and one measurable dependent variable (the effect)

The data analyzed must be recent.

Double Spaced and a 12 size font.

Multiple Sources

Citations: (Use MLA/APA standard )

http://citationmachine.net/index2.php

http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/747/02/

Choose five (5) variables. One (1) will be dependent and the remaining four (4) will be independent. Meaning the independent variables will help predict the dependent.

Example: Independent variables of May – Precipitation, Average Temperature, Humidity, Dew Point will predict the Dependent Variable of June Precipitation.

Example 2: Independent variables of Daily – hours worked, number of workers, sick hours and training time will help predict the Dependent Variable of Daily -team quality.

Independent 1, Independent 2, Independent 3, and Independent 4 cause, or help to predict the Dependent …….you are drawing a relationship or attempting to show a relationship between your Independent variables and the dependent variable.

1) Purpose Statement This should be included in the research paper..

In one paragraph, state the correlation and identify the primary independent variable.

State the correlation:

“The dependent variable _______ is determined by independent variables ________, _________, ________, and ________.

Identify the primary independent variable:

The most important independent variable in this relationship is ________ because _________.”

Reason the remaining three variables were chosen: (for each variable write a relationship statement)

The independent variable __________ is related to the dependent variable __________ because __________________.”

2) Dataset:

You must have at least 34 observations of cross-sectional data for each of the five variables. The most current variables (4 of the 30) will be used as “test” variables and the additional 30 will be used for the analysis. Thus for the final paper, you will have a data matrix that is at least 30 rows by 5 columns with an additional 4 variables targeted for test values.

The variables chosen must be based on a time variable (hours, days, months, years…..or certain points in time)…not (States, types of products, Countries, colors, weather, specific names)

…..Do not choose a variable such as (yes/no….win/loss….many “0’s” or variables that add up or sum to the dependent variable, like GDP=C+Ig+G+Xn.)….your variables must be numeric.

***The data chosen must be as recent as possible based on the topic chosen. Monthly data should be as current as August 2015 and yearly data as current as the end of the year 2014.

Topics with data starting prior to the year 2014 will need to be approved by the instructor.

Dependant Primary Independent Independent Independent Independent

Scale ( days, months, years,….) <Title> <Title> <Title> <Title> <Title>

1

2

3) Definition of Variables

For each variable, write a single definition paragraph (five paragraphs total). They should be in this order: dependent variable, primary independent variable, and remaining three independent variables.

In addition to defining the independent variables, you must defend why each determines the dependent variable and how you feel the variables will interact.

4) Outlier Data Analysis

In one paragraph, describe the data: Highlight outliers and major fluctuations between values in your dataset and provide an explanation of why such an event occurred.

Outlier [out-lahy-er]

1. an observation that is well outside of the expected range of values in a study or experiment, and which is often discarded from the data set:

5) Scatter Plot Analysis

• Run a Scatter plot analysis using the Mega Stat program in excel. You should end up with four charts (one for each independent variable).

o Explain the slope of the regression line ( Positive or Negative )

o Explain your R2 value.

o Explain the R value correlation. ( Strong, Moderate, or Weak, Positive/Negative)

o Test the Significance of the Correlation @ 95% (t-Value 2.048) – 30 Variables.

o Either embed the scatter plot chart into the text of the paper or reference it and add it as an attachment.

6) Estimation Statement (Multiple Linear Regression)

• Using Mega Stat…. run a regression analysis with all your independent variables against your dependent variable. (Correlation/ Regression then select Regression Analysis)

Estimation Statement:

• Using the 4 test variables develop an estimation statement using the coefficient values from the regression. ( follow the example from the Chapter 14 notes )

Based on your values explain the results of your estimation.

7) Durbin Watson (Autocorrelation Analysis):

• Locate the Durbin-Watson value from your regression and evaluate it against 95% confidence level. If you have (k= 4) and (n=30) your results would fit within the statements noted below:

( The bullet points below needs to be included in your research paper to reflect your analysis)

(k=4) (n=30)

• Less than dL (< 1.14 ) = Positive autocorrelation

• Between dL and dU ( 1.14 and 1.74 ) = Test not conclusive ( Don’t Know )

• Between dU and 4dU ( 1.74 and 2.26 ) = No autocorrelation

• Between 4dU and 4dL (2.26 and 2.86 ) = Test not conclusive ( Don’t Know )

• Greater than 4dU ( > 2.86 ) = Negative autocorrelation

• ** Your regression results should either be embedded in text of your research paper or referenced as an attachment.

8) Summarize Results

(Paragraph)

9) Works Cited Page ( Week 4 )

The final page of your proposal should be a Works Cited page on which you list the two research sources for the primary independent variable in the appropriate format. You should also list the data sources, with a separate citation for each table of data.

**This document outlines the basic requirements of the research paper. Students are urged to be creative in adding additional statistical analysis to the paper to strengthen the analysis. ( explain the formulas, approaches used to analyzed data, background information on the subject…additional charts explaining residuals and multiple linear regression……)

Rough Outline:

I. Title Page

II. Table of Contents

III. Opening/Purpose Statement

a. Sentences from Section 1

b. Additional information on the Subject

IV. Define Dependent Variable

V. Define Independent Variable 1

VI. Define Independent Variable 2

VII. Define Independent Variable 3

VIII. Define Independent Variable 4

IX. Dataset

X. Outlier Analysis

XI. Scatterplot Analysis ( Explain what it is )

a. Scatterplot Analysis Chart 1

b. Scatterplot Analysis Chart 2

c. Scatterplot Analysis Chart 3

d. Scatterplot Analysis Chart 4

XII. Durbin Watson Analysis ( Explain what it is )

a. Durbin Watson Chart ( Identify your value )

XIII. Multiple Liner Regression Analysis ( Explain what it is )

a. Your estimation statement – Fill out multiple linear regression formula with your variables and calculate

b. Test Analysis 1

i. Dependent variable compared to predicted value – Residual Analysis

c. Test Analysis 2

i. Dependent variable compared to predicted value – Residual Analysis

d. Test Analysis 3

i. Dependent variable compared to predicted value – Residual Analysis

e. Test Analysis 4

i. Dependent variable compared to predicted value – Residual Analysis

XIV. Summary

XV. Works Cited