You are a risk manager in a manufacturing company and one of your key responsibilities is securing of property insurance coverage to provide protection against damage caused by “acts of God,” such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, etc. You begin the process with due diligence, which is focused on estimating the chances of a single “act of God” occurring in the year, as well as chances of two or more “acts of God” occurring in the year (also in the course of the subsequent year). Consider the different approaches to assigning probabilities to “acts of God.” Which of the approaches will you be most inclined to choose and why? Which of those approaches will you be least inclined to choose and why?
Justify your answer with examples and reasoning.