Scheduling and Risk analysis in Construction
write a paper research about Scheduling & Risk analysis in Construction management. I will upload 3 pdf files that should the writer consider for this paper research. I need a introduction and then a literature Review for this subject from the pdf files that I already uploaded.
1- I need an introduction about the topic
2- Literature Review.
Quantifying schedule risk in construction projects
using Bayesian belief networks
Van Truong Luu a, Soo-Yong Kim b,*, Nguyen Van Tuan c, Stephen O. Ogunlana d
a Interdisciplinary Program of Construction Engineering and Management, Pukyong National University, San 100, Yongdang-Dong,
Nam-Gu, Busan 608-739, Republic of Korea
b Division of Construction Engineering, Pukyong National University, San 100, Yongdang-Dong, Nam-Gu, Busan 608-739, Republic of Korea
c Meinhardt Vietnam Ltd., 180 Pasteur, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
d The School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, United Kingdom
Received 18 January 2007; received in revised form 29 February 2008; accepted 4 March 2008
Abstract
Delays on construction projects cause financial losses for project stakeholders in developing countries. This paper describes how
Bayesian belief network (BBN) is applied to quantify the probability of construction project delays in a developing country. Sixteen factors
were identified through a questionnaire survey of 166 professionals. Eighteen cause-effect relationships among these factors were
obtained through expert interview survey to develop a belief network model. The validity of the proposed model is tested using two realistic
case studies. The findings of the study revealed that financial difficulties of owners and contractors, contractor’s inadequate experience,
and shortage of materials are the main causes of delay on construction projects in Vietnam. The results encourage practitioners to
benefit from the BBNs. This approach is general and, as such, it may be applied to other construction projects with minor modifications.
2008 Elsevier Ltd and IPMA. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Bayesian belief networks; Construction projects; Risk management; Scheduling; Delays; Vietnam
1. Introduction
Schedules are essential to the successful execution of
projects. Without a schedule, it is difficult to coordinate
the diverse activities found in a construction project [1].
Most schedules are developed in a deterministic manner.
However, schedules often contain significant uncertainty
[15] because risk and uncertainty are inherent in all construction
activities [2]. As a result, schedule delays are common
in various construction projects and cause
considerable losses to project parties. It is widely accepted
that construction project schedule plays a key role in project
management due to its influence on project success.
Therefore, it is important to quantify probabilities of schedule
delays when managing a construction project. To
serve the need for proactive project management, the need
has emerged for the development of facile methods to evaluate
the probability of construction time-overruns.
Vietnam is highly regarded by many people as a promising
economy, and there is much admiration for the
growth of competitiveness and investment opportunities
[3]. However the construction environment in Vietnam is
risky due to poor infrastructure, underdeveloped management
mechanisms, bureaucratic government, and little
competition between state-own and private enterprises.
As a result, delays in construction projects frequently cause
financial losses for project stakeholders. As the saying goes,
‘‘a problem well identified is a problem half-solved”. Therefore,
predicting possible construction schedule delays is an
effective step towards improving the chances for success on
construction projects. There has been very little empirical
work done on this subject in the Vietnam construction
industry (VCI).
0263-7863/$34.00 2008 Elsevier Ltd and IPMA. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2008.03.003
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +82 51 620 1548; fax: +82 51 628 2231.
E-mail address: [email protected] (S.-Y. Kim).
www.elsevier.com/locate/ijproman
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
International Journal of Project Management 27 (2009) 39–50
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