Sonora County Sherriff Case 7.1 (pg. 195/6)
Sample Solution
Sonora County Sheriff Case 7.1 Analysis
Run Charts and Burglary Concerns:
-
Run Charts: Create separate line graphs (run charts) for each incident category (burglary, assault, theft, disorderly conduct, DUI) to visualize trends over time. These charts will reveal any increasing or decreasing patterns in each category.
-
Burglary Increase: Analyze the burglary run chart. If there's a consistent upward trend in recent months compared to the previous year, then the Sheriff has reason to be concerned about a potential burglary increase.
Scatter Diagram for Burglary:
To explore possible explanations for a burglary rise, consider plotting burglaries against variables that might influence them. Here are some options:
- Unemployment Rate: Higher unemployment rates can sometimes correlate with increased property crime.
- Foreclosure Rates: An increase in foreclosures can create vacant properties, which might be seen as easier targets for burglary.
- Student Population: If burglaries seem to concentrate around student housing areas, plotting against student population by month could reveal a correlation.
Disorderly Conduct and DUI:
The unusual pattern of disorderly conduct and DUI incidents with higher numbers in warmer months (likely spring and summer) could be explained by:
- Seasonal Activities: More people gathering outdoors for social events, holidays, or warmer evenings might lead to increased alcohol consumption and disorderly behavior.
- Increased Traffic: Higher traffic volumes during vacations or summer months could contribute to more DUI arrests.
Full Answer Section
Sheriff's Response to Disorderly Conduct and DUI:
The Sheriff could address this pattern through:
- Increased Patrols: Target high-traffic areas and areas with known nightlife activity during peak months.
- Community Outreach Programs: Educate the public about responsible drinking and the dangers of DUI.
- Collaboration with Local Businesses: Work with bars and restaurants to promote responsible alcohol consumption practices.
Control Charts for Assault and Theft:
Control charts might not be necessary for assault and theft incidents if:
- The incidents are relatively stable: If the run charts show no significant upward or downward trends, control charts might not be needed for ongoing monitoring.
- Limited resources: Implementing control charts for all categories requires resources for data collection and analysis. If resources are limited, prioritize control charts for categories with the most significant concerns (e.g., burglary, if it's increasing).
Pareto Chart Analysis:
A Pareto chart would display incident categories ranked by their total frequency from highest to lowest. While it might reveal the category with the most incidents, the Sheriff may not prioritize efforts based solely on this:
- Severity vs. Frequency: Some less frequent incidents, like assaults, might be considered more serious than frequent ones, like disorderly conduct. The Sheriff might prioritize addressing assaults despite their lower frequency on the Pareto chart.
- Resource Allocation: Addressing high-frequency incidents might be easier with existing resources, while more complex solutions might be needed for less frequent but more severe incidents.
Conclusion:
Data visualization tools like run charts, scatter plots, and Pareto charts can offer valuable insights into crime patterns. While the Sheriff should be concerned about a potential rise in burglaries, a comprehensive approach considering the nature and severity of incidents is crucial for effective resource allocation and crime reduction strategies.