This question is based on the use of the C-Learn online climate simulation tool that you encountered in Activity 3.6.
C-Learn can be found at the following website: https://climateinteractive.org/ simulations/c-learn/simulation
[Tip: hold Ctrl and click a link to open it in a new tab. (Hide tip)
When using C-Learn in this question (all parts) you should use the default settings for deforestation and afforestation (in the middle of the home screen).
Following the 2015 Paris Agreement there is now a Global New Deal for emissions reductions limiting global warming to 2 °C. You have been approached to do some analyses using C-Learn of the implications of the Global New Deal.
a.Use C-Learn to measure the following:i.For each of the three Country Groups (Developed, Developing A, Developing B) state the changes in fossil fuel emissions in 2050 compared to 2014 in C-Learn’s business as usual scenario. Express your answers as percentage increases (rounded to the nearest per cent). (3 marks)
ii.Provide a screenshot of the relevant graphic showing evolution of per capita fossil fuel emissions in the baseline scenario over the period 2000–2100 for the three Country Groups and the Global Average. (2 marks)
iii.Using what you have learned in Block 3, describe in up to 500 words two arguments for and two arguments against the credibility of the scenario depicted in (ii). Illustrate your answer using appropriate screenshots by comparing and contrasting absolute and percentage growth rates of the different Country Groups and the Global Average. You may also wish to refer to Figure 4.8 of Climate Change: from Science to Sustainability, which shows the evolution of global emissions broken down by regions from 1900 to 2000. (10 marks)
iv.A proposal is on the negotiating table that developed countries are considering committing to a legally-binding stabilisation of their emissions at 67% below year 2005 levels by 2050, starting in 2020. What is the temperature increase by 2100 relative to the pre-industrial predicted using C-Learn implied in a unilateral version of this scenario – i.e. developing countries A and B pursue their baselines? Give your answer accurately to one decimal place. (5 marks)
b.You have been asked you to use C-Learn to investigate the following outcomes of Paris COP21 Global New Deal: i.Developed countries have committed to a quasi legally-binding stabilisation of their emissions at 67% below year 2005 levels by 2050 starting (i.e. peaking) in 2020 (as in Question 3(a) (iv)).
ii.Developing A Countries have committed to a quasi legally-binding stabilisation of their emissions at 29% above year 2005 levels by 2050 starting (i.e. peaking) in 2030.
iii.Developing B Countries have committed to a quasi legally-binding stabilisation of their emissions at 116% above year 2005 levels by 2050 starting (i.e. peaking) in 2040.
iv.In making their commitments it is assumed that the three regions following the baseline emissions up to the peaking year which is the year their emissions stop and also the start of the reduction year.
Using C-Learn, run a scenario that meets requirements (i)–(iv) and then:
1.Complete the following table giving the parameters for your scenario and paste a labelled copy of it into your TMA answer.
Stop growth year Reduction start year Annual reduction 2050 relative to 2005 level
Download table: rtf or Word format.
2.Paste a labelled screenshot of C-Learn’s ‘home’ page for your scenario meeting the requirements into your TMA.
3.What is the temperature in 2100 for the Global New Deal Scenario to the nearest decimal place?
4.Paste a labelled screenshot of the per capita emission profile for the three regions over the course of the century and briefly comment on it in terms of its political relevance to contraction and convergence theory.
5.Write a note to summarise your main findings.
In your note you should state:
?the temperature rise measured in 2100 associated with the Global New Deal scenario
?the precise details of the Global New Deal in terms of parameters you have chosen in the C-Learn model
?broad details of how your scenario meets the requirements for contraction and convergence.
Use no more than 300 words and include your word count at the end of your answer. (See below for ‘Tips’.)
Tips that will help you answer Question 3
Use relevant screenshots of part or all of the C-Learn interface to back up your answers.
To obtain a screenshot, copy the relevant screen by simply pressing the PrintScreen key on your computer keyboard (usually found towards the top right). This copies the whole of your computer screen to your Clipboard; if you just want to copy the active window, use Alt+PrintScreen. You can paste the screenshot directly into your document from the Clipboard but this tends to create very large file sizes that may cause problems when you try to submit your TMA. To avoid this you can create a graphics file from the Clipboard image by pasting it into graphics software (including, for example, OpenOffice Draw or MS PowerPoint) and then saving it as a .jpg file (the preferred format if you want to keep the file size as small as possible). You can also edit the image (e.g. crop unwanted detail and re-size) in this software. The graphics file can then either be inserted into your answer document or attached separately (zipped up with the rest of your answer), in which case it should be suitably labelled and referred to in your TMA answer.
Alternatively, you can use the snipping tool which is part of more recent versions of Windows, or download free software such as ScreenHunter.
Where relevant check the appropriate data tables and provide a graphical screenshot to back up your answers.
C-Learn times out after a few minutes so beware of that if you are interrupted mid-activity – if this happens you will need to start your inputs again.
The simulator sometimes runs much more slowly in the afternoon (GMT) – this may be because more users from the US are logged on from about lunchtime in the UK.
There are limits to some of the parameters in C-Learn as follows:
Minimum input value
Maximum input value
Stop Growth Year 2005 2100
Reduction Start Year 2005 2100
% Annual Reduction 0 10
If you attempt to use values outside of these limits C-Learn will not work properly.
(Total = 40 marks)