Wilkins Forecasting
How accurate was the demand for the first quarter of 2005?
What is the current demand forecasting method?
Create a demand forecast for the PVB product family for the next three quarters.
As Bernie Barge, what would you recommend to management and why?
How should Barge convince management to follow his recommendations?
“Period
(x)” Year Qtr Sales “Seasonal
Factor” “Deseasonalized
Demand” x2 xy Trend Forecast
1 2001 1 27508 55.57% 49503 1 49503 46348.33465 25755
2 2 45799 97.07% 47179 4 94359 48136.69003 46728
3 3 76973 159.78% 48175 9 144525 49925.04541 79769
4 4 43862 87.58% 50083 16 200331 51713.40079 45290
5 2002 1 30576 55.57% 55024 25 275118 53501.75617 29730
6 2 53196 97.07% 54799 36 328796 55290.11155 53672
7 3 88712 159.78% 55522 49 388654 57078.46693 91199
8 4 51584 87.58% 58900 64 471200 58866.82231 51555
9 2003 1 35373 55.57% 63656 81 572906 60655.17769 33705
10 2 57837 97.07% 59580 100 595802 62443.53307 60617
11 3 93392 159.78% 58451 121 642962 64231.88845 102629
12 4 58903 87.58% 67257 144 807085 66020.24383 57820
13 2004 1 39377 55.57% 70862 169 921201 67808.59921 37680
14 2 75218 97.07% 77485 196 1084791 69596.95459 67561
15 3 122863 159.78% 76896 225 1153440 71385.30997 114058
16 4 55003 87.58% 62804 256 1004864 73173.66535 64085
Sum 1496 8735537
8.5 Average Average 59761
17 2005 55.57% 74962.02072 41656
18 97.07% 76750.3761 74505
19 159.78% 78538.73148 125488
20 87.58% 80327.08686 70350
b 1788.355379
a 44559.97928
