Write this paper using ONLY listed reading materials bellow. Follow the instructions!
This is an online forum posting please write in 1 page maximum.
The readings this week will introduce you to two predictive methods of analysis – the Delphi Method and Red Teaming. The Predictive Analysis reading includes several excerpts on predictive analysis. The remaining documents provide specific details and example on each of the methods – Delphi and Red Teaming. Be sure that you note these ideas as you read and think about the material. Also, be sure to note the specific pages to be read for this week.
1. Class lesson (attached)
2. Predictive Analysis(attached)
3. The Delphi Method (attached)
4. Delphi Technique (attached)
5. Delphi Homeland Security(attached)
6. The Role and Status of DoD Red Teaming Activities (pages 1-18)(attached)
7. Red Teaming and the Intelligence Professional(attached)
8. Enhancing Red Team Performance(attached)
There is one video to watch. The video gives a simple overview the Delphi method.
1. Delphi methodhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFfKOSTftcs
This forum looks at the two predictive analytic techniques – Delphi method and Red Teaming. From this discussion, you will better understand the benefits and limitations of each method.
Respond to the following question:
Select a current intelligence issue (You MAY select the issue related to conflict between Ukraine and Russia.Remember the topic should be in predictive statei.e “My intelligence issue is whether Argentina might invade the Falkland Islands once again in an attempt to wrest control from Great Britain.”). Explain which predictive method would be more effective (powerful) at forecasting the outcome of the situation. Be sure to discuss both methods in your answer.